Forecast: 40% chance that Earth will soon be warmer than Paris target

A new World Meteorological Agency forecasts that it will be so hot over the next five years that there is a 40% chance that the world will exceed the temperature limit set by the Paris Climate Agreement

Meteorologists said that there is a 40% probability that the world will become so hot in the next five years that it will temporarily exceed the temperature limit that the Paris Climate Agreement is trying to prevent.

For this year, meteorologists say the bulk of the land in the Northern Hemisphere will be 1.4 degrees (0.8 ° C) warmer than in recent decades and the drought will continue in the southwest of the US.

The Paris Climate Agreement of 2015 aims to keep the tenth of a few degrees warmer than now. The report states that there is a 40% probability that at least one of the next five years will be 1.5 ° C (2.7 ° F) higher than pre-industrial times – the stricter of the two Paris targets. The world is already 1.2 ° C (2.2 ° F) warmer than pre-industrial times.

Last year, the same group estimated a 20% probability of this happening.

Doubling the odds is due to improvements in technology that show that it has “actually gotten warmer than ever before,” especially in light-monitored polar regions, Leon Hermanson, a climate scientist at the Met Center in the United Kingdom Said who helped forecast.

“This is a warning that we need to take stern action,” Hermansson said.

Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann, who was not part of the report, said he was “almost certain” that the world would cross the Paris warming threshold at least once in the next few years. But he said that a year or two above 1.5 ° C (2.7 ° F) is not as worrisome when the overall trend of temperature remains above that level.

Mann said that probably won’t happen for decades and it can still be stopped.


The Associated Press Department of Health and Sciences receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. AP is fully responsible for all content.


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