The United Nations has reversed the Chinese and US economies by modifying their global economic forecast for 2021 to 5.4%.
Extending its projection of 4.7% growth since January, the United Nations’ 2021 World Economic Conditions and Prospects report pointed to a rapid vaccine rollout in some of the larger economies led by the US and China, and in trade and manufactured goods Global trade increased. Which has already reached its pre-epidemic level.
But the United Nations warned that “it will not be enough to lift the rest of the world’s economies,” and that “the economic outlook for the countries of South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean is fragile and uncertain.”
Hamid Rashid, lead author of the Global Economic Monitoring Branch in the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, told a press conference that “Europe’s outlook is not as bright as we had hoped” because the signs of the second and third waves of COVID-19 Huh. Infection.
He said, “The key challenge in the world right now is that infection is still on the rise in many parts of the world, and we are seeing new forms and new changes, affecting the large population in South Asia, “Even in Latin America. “This is a significant challenge in the context of reform and world economic development.”
Rashid said: “Vaccination is probably the number one issue right now to put the world economy on a stable path of vaccination.”
In normal times, he said, 5.4% would be considered a very high economic growth rate, but this year it is barely making up for last year’s losses and growth is “very uneven and very uncertain.”
He said that the United Nations expects the US economy, which is very strong, to grow by about 6.2% this year, “the fastest growth of the US economy since 1966,” and expects the Chinese economy to be around Will increase by 8.2%.
But he called India, Brazil, South Africa and many other developing countries a “weak spot”.
Rashid said that in the past the growth rate of developing countries would be higher than the global average, but this year the average growth rate of many developing countries and regions is lower due to epidemic.
One of the major drivers of the economic recovery is investment, he said, with some countries such as the US having seen only a 1.7% drop in investment last year while some developed countries have seen a drop in investment of 4% or more of GDP. saw.
Rashid said the United Nations’ 5.4% growth forecast this year is far more cautious than other international organizations, including the International Monetary Fund, which raised its 2021 projection to 6% last month.
“We are still optimistic about the global economy,” Rashid said, but “there are a lot of uncertainties that we have outlined in our report, particularly the proliferation of immunizations and coverage that could be achieved in the next six years to achieve that kind of There should be a growth rate in months that we are projecting here. ”
For 2022, the United Nations forecasts that the global economy will grow by about 4.7%, exceeding the IMF’s projection of 4.4%.